Category: real estate

Posted on

When Do Homes Come on the Market in Crozet?

number of new listings in Brownsville + Crozet and % of total (217)

Interesting to think that we might be seeing even less inventory this year in Brownsville + Crozet school districts.

Our market is driven largely by the school calendar, whether that’s Albemarle County schools, private schools, or UVA.

It’s been an interesting 2023.

As I wrote on RealCentralVA:

It’s been a challenging year(s) for buyers in the Charlottesville area. While it’s been this way for years, the past three years have been exceptionally hard.

  • Continued low inventory
  • High prices
  • Higher interest rates than a generation of buyers have seen
  • 42% of American homeowners don’t have mortgages
  • The baby chasers are having an impact on the market

Questions? Ask me. 434-242-7140 or [email protected]

JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJune
# in 2023511252727
# in 2022 (217)131027313328
* single family + attached, resale, Brownsville + Crozet, excluding new construction

What is the Crozet real estate market doing right now?

The best answer is the one I’ve said for most of my career – I’ll tell you in 18 months what happens tomorrow, combined with “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure this out.” No one knows with certainty, but I think I have a reasonably educated and experienced prognostication.

number of new listings in Brownsville + Crozet and % of total (217)
number of new listings in Brownsville + Crozet and % of total (217)

How many homes will come on the market that will fit you?

In 2017, I wrote a story laying out an answer to this question for Charlottesville, and for Albemarle. The logic and rationale remains the same, but the numbers have changed.

So have prices.

In Crozet, getting to “good enough” might take longer, or shorter, than you might like.

There comes a time in every home search process (and often the home selling process) where one says “this is good enough.”

Arriving at the point of whatever you want to call it – concession, compromise, acquiescence, acceptance, or, to use a positively-connoted descriptor – satisfied – is hard.

Related posts

Questions?

Posted on

Looking Towards Crozet’s 2023 Real Estate Market

There is a lot to consider when looking at Crozet’s real estate market. I’ve never hidden that I’m a Realtor who represents sellers and buyers in Crozet, and I’m writing this post as much for me as for you.

One important note: when looking back at past years, I’ve typically broken down Crozet and Brownsville Elementary school districts. (see the bottom of this post) Those school districts were shaken up in 2022, so for this post I’m looking at Crozet + Brownsville.

The average sales prices for homes in Crozet is eye-popping. Average sales price for a single family home in Crozet in 2022 was $739,053.

Click to embiggen

Some additional notes on the Crozet Market

  • This redistricting will necessarily change how I analyze properties for clients.
  • Buyers should ensure that they know which district the house they are considering is in; often, Realtors will copy the previous listing without double checking. (we’re all human)
  • I think the 2023 Crozet real estate market will be fine; likely not mid-2020 to mid 2022 busy, but a good market for sellers. And a hard one for buyers.
  • For those who advocate for fewer homes in Crozet, please think about our kids who want to move back to be close to (grand)parents, and grandparents who want to move to Crozet to be closer to the (grand)kids. And consider the people who we ostensibly want to live and work in Crozet …
  • From a volume perspective, I think we’re going to be closer to 2019 numbers than 2020-2022. We’ll see.

As we start to close out the end of January, a few quick numbers

  • 303 homes – attached + single family – sold last year via the Charlottesville MLS
    • 81 attached; average price was $474,190. 40 of the 81 were new construction; average price was $554,891.
    • 222 single family homes; average price was $739,053. 88 of the 222 were new construction; average price of these homes was $846,320.
    • Of the 303 homes that sold in Crozet last year, 29 were under $400K.
      • 24 of the 29 had at least 3 bedrooms.

Inventory remains a challenge for buyers; and keeps a strong market for sellers.

  • Last January, 19 non-new construction homes were listed in Crozet.
  • It’s 27 January 2023, and so far, 5 non-new construction homes have been listed in Crozet. 2 of the 5 are under contract (one of those two is my listing)
  • There is not much land left in Crozet to develop for new residential construction.

If you’re thinking about selling your home in Crozet, now is still a good time to do so, and still requires proper preparation, pricing, and representation.

If you’re thinking about buying a home in Crozet, please reach out if you are looking for buyer representation; it’s going to remain a challenging market in which to buy, but it’s doable.

If you have questions about the market, or are curious about a development you saw that might be coming, please call or email me anytime.

Read more: Looking Towards Crozet’s 2023 Real Estate Market

I’m going to be writing in my February monthly note about Albemarle County assessments; if you’re interested, you can subscribe here.

Have a Question or email comment?

Subscribe to RealCrozetVA

Share this post.

Posted on

Crozet Real Estate Market Update – July 2022

I haven’t written one of these in a while. There’s a lot happening the national, regional, Crozet real estate market, so I thought I’d put some thoughts to metaphorical paper.

I wrote recently, in part

tl;dr: the market is changing, and what we’ve become accustomed to has changed. Questions? Ask me.

I started this section in the first few days of June, and have re-written it at least three five six times. My “econ” twitter list has been active as everyone learns about this market.

In short, I think we’re in a transitioning market rather than a transitory market; everything is different now.

This is a bit of a scary time in the real estate market. In the end, it will be OK. The move from a super-hot, multiple offer, escalating offers market to a much, much more conservative and even aggressive pricing strategy market has been fast.

One of the most important parts of what I do is help manage expectations of my clients. Two recent emails, one from a buyer and one from a seller’s agent, on a house my buyer lost out on in a multiple offer situation:

  1. “We have thought about it and have decided to rent for a year before buying, hopefully to give the housing market time to settle! If it is okay with you we would love to reach out again next year when we are looking again.”
  2. “They are all over the place, even wondering if they should just wait for other offers, which I am advising against.”

My response to the buyer was that I’ll absolutely be here next year and that I thought they were making a good decision. I’ve said the same thing to quite a few buyers recently. Twelve years ago I wrote that I think people moving to Charlottesville should rent first; I still think that’s the best advice.

My response to the seller’s agent was echoing her advice that waiting for other offers likely wouldn’t yield more offers. I suspect that those sellers were basing their expectations on the market from a few months ago rather than today’s reality. 

I wrote this on 12 June in my post, Inventory Up, Price Reductions Down.
  • The market from earlier in the pandemic that may be helping sellers set their own expectations is gone. As I’ve told clients, “What your neighbor got for their house four months ago, and how fast, and with however many offers, is irrelevant.”

Ali Wolf tweeted “If someone could afford the monthly payment of a $450,000 home at a 3% interest rate, the equivalent payment at a 6% interest rate is for a $316,000 home.”

I’m writing offers now with interest rate caps of 6.5%, and I’m thinking 7% might be next. And in the future, rates will fall again, and people will refinance. We will be fine.

Take a $600K house, with 20% down, at 3.25% interest = PI of $2,089/month. Principal + interest (not including taxes and insurance).At 6%, for that $600K house, the PI is $2,878.

At 6%, a $2,086 monthly payment with 20% down will get you a $435K house.

Sellers, keep the above in mind when pricing your home; better yet, let’s talk it through together.

I’ve written “new normal” countless times over the years; whatever is happening today is our normal.

NB: I use Karl’s Mortgage calculator, and include taxes and interest; not every online mortgage calculator does.

Keep this in mind.

“Homebuyers on a $2,500 Monthly Budget Have Lost $118,000 in Spending Power This Year Amid Surge in Mortgage Rates. A buyer on a $2,500 budget can afford a $400,000 home with a 6% mortgage rate. That’s compared to a $517,000 home with a 3% mortgage rate.” 

Things will be ok. 

Continue reading “Crozet Real Estate Market Update – July 2022”
Posted on

Looking at Crozet’s 2022 Real Estate Market

2021 may go in the books as one of the most expensive and fastest-moving markets in history. I wrote a bit about my thoughts on 2022:

Much the same as 2021. The pandemic will continue, inventory will be tight, and there will be a lot of competition for a lot of houses, and less for others. Similar story, different year.

  • Pandemic 
    • Inflation, supply chain, labor, economy, etc. etc. etc. 
  • Interest Rates (see below)
  • Inventory
  • More buyers in the Charlottesville – Albemarle market are going to give up and either continue renting, or move away.
  • Inventory
  • Climate change is going to affect *everything* including what we pay for homeowners insurance.
  • New construction costs
  • Inventory

Have a question? Looking for representation? I’m here. (disclosure that I’m sure you figured out: I’m a Realtor)

What do the numbers below mean?

Defining “Crozet” as “Brownsville + Crozet Elementary School districts”

  • 434 homes sold in Crozet in 2021
    • 172 were new construction; all but one of these were an acre or less
    • 262 resale homes sold; average days on market was 30, and the median days on market was 6.
  • Average price for all homes sold was $527K and the median price was $468K
    • Average price for new construction was $558K and the median was $520K.
  • 287 single family homes sold and 146 attached homes sold
  • Of the 434 homes sold, 381 were on a acre or less. 354 were on half an acre or less

Did you know?

“… Crozet had a population increase of 65.75% in the last 10 years, from about 5,565 in 2010 to approximately 9,224 in 2020, according to census data.“

And some not-specifically-related to real estate, but really about real estate thoughts and Crozet:

We need to bring business to Crozet, and do whatever we can to lure/cajole/entice businesses to move to Crozet and provide jobs so that Crozetians don’t have to commute to Charlottesville or elsewhere; this will be better for the Crozet and Albemarle economies, good for community by keeping people here, and if we can manage to build houses, we should be able to build supporting non-auto-centric infrastructure so that people are able to move from one place to another without having to get into a car.

Bike and pedestrian infrastructure is good for community, climate, health and wellness, and the economy. We need a vision that looks beyond the next few months and years, and envisions what we can be in 25 to 50 years.

Yes, we are getting some roundabouts, a bigger Crozet Elementary, and piecemeal sidewalks interspersed here and there. But we need to do better, and I’m pretty sure that we can.

Questions?

Posted on

Moving to Crozet? (via Reddit)

This question on Reddit was a fun writing prompt for me.

Hi all hoping you can give me the local’s perspective of Crozet. My wife and I are lifelong Marylanders seriously looking at moving away from the DC area to the greater Charlottesville area in the next 2-3 years. We’ve got two kids in elementary school and are looking for a lot of what the area has to offer. We came down earlier this summer and stumbled upon Crozet as a potential area of interest.

Is it really as nice as it seems? What are you’re thoughts? We want to be close enough to Charlottesville but be able to maintain a small-town feel.

And my answer

Lots of people from NoVa/DC/Maryland move to Crozet/Charlottesville.

Crozet is a great place to live; we’ve raised two kids here. Close to mountains, hiking, biking, 25-30 minutes to Charlottesville, and Crozet is becoming more self-sufficient all them time. The mountains aren’t going anywhere.

But … as I tell my clients (yes, I’m an agent), there’s a ton of growth yet to come, and in my opinion (as someone who’s lived in Crozet for 20 years, and as a Realtor), this growth comes with challenges. Much of the growth is homogeneous with limited character, but that’s the nature of such production-built-homes, schools are crowded, and traffic (yes, really) can be a challenge. 64 can be a disaster, but they are improving 118B.

Keeping the “small town” feel is one of the key points in the Crozet Master Plan, and is often discussed. But … I don’t have great confidence in the Plan being followed; it’s an aspirational document it seems. If you live close to the elementary schools (there are two, Brownsville Elementary and Crozet Elementary), you can walk or ride bikes to school with your kids. This was one of the best things I did as a parent.

Quite a few links:

I’d be happy to put you in touch with clients who have made the same move.

Continue reading “Moving to Crozet? (via Reddit)”
Posted on

CCAC Meeting – February 2019 | Schools, and Recycling

This should be an interesting meeting, seeing as how most everyone in Crozet benefits from having a great school system. I’ll reserve my cynicism for my in-meeting tweets.

#CCAC0219

Crozet Library 
Wednesday, February 13, 2019 from 7:00 p.m. to 8:45 p.m. 

Agenda 

1.    Introductions and Agenda Review (Allie Pesch – CCAC chair) 

2.    Approval of Minutes 

3.    Recycling in Western Albemarle (Trudy Brement, Emma-Caroline Avery, and Maren Eanes, Henley Middle School – 20 min) 

Due to illness, the recycling discussion will be postponed. Instead, our neighborhood planner Andrew Knuppel will be presenting the county’s new development dashboard and giving us an overview of Crozet developments currently “in the pipeline.”

4.    Western Albemarle Feeder Pattern School Capacity and Enrollment (Rosalyn Schmitt, ACPS Chief Operating Officer – 60 min) 

5.    Items Not Listed on the Agenda 

6.    Announcements 

7.    Future Agenda Items 
        –  Joel DeNunzio, VDOT (March) 
        –  Chesterfield Landing Phase III Review 
        –  Albemarle County Development Pipeline Dashboards (Andrew Knuppel) 
        –  The Square and Barnes Lumber Updates? 

Posted on

Insight for Buyers and Sellers in Crozet, Looking to 2019

We are releasing our Annual Nest Report shortly; if you’d like a copy, please email Jim or Greg.

Transcript

Jim: Hey. I’m Jim Duncan with Nest Realty (434-242-7140).

Greg: And I’m Greg Slater with Nest Realty (434-981-6655). We wanted to take this opportunity to talk to you a little bit about the Crozet Market. When we talk about the Crozet Market, we define it as the elementary school districts of Brownsville Elementary and Crozet Elementary.

Continue reading “Insight for Buyers and Sellers in Crozet, Looking to 2019”

Posted on

Crozet Real Estate Market – Nearing End of 2018

Sales are slowing, inventory is creeping up, new construction is moving along, and we’re seeing price moderations. Watch the whole video, skim the transcript; ask us questions.

 

Jim: Hey there, I’m Jim Duncan with Nest Realty here in Crozet.

Greg: And I’m Greg Slater with Nest Realty. We define the Crozet market as the school districts of Brownsville Elementary and Crozet Elementary. We gave you some stats in our last video. We were talking about the fact that sales in Crozet were down about 10% at that point. Moving ahead, we’re looking a little bit past the third quarter to the end of October, year to date. We’re still going in the wrong direction. Now we’re about 16% off.

Continue reading “Crozet Real Estate Market – Nearing End of 2018”

Posted on

Mid-2018 Crozet Real Estate Market Update

Crozet real estate market update with Greg Slater and Jim Duncan with Nest Realty.

The first half of 2018 is behind us, and we talked about resales vs new construction, home prices, where in Crozet homes are selling, what happened with home inventory over the past few years.

Note that this is a longer video than typical; we covered a lot.

Thanks to the Rooftop for letting us use their … Rooftop.

(Greg and I are getting accustomed to doing these videos together … we will get better)

Transcript

Continue reading “Mid-2018 Crozet Real Estate Market Update”

Posted on

Drink it Forward – For Crozet Park

Thursday, 12 April 2018.

Beer at Rooftop.

For Charity. (and community)

Tip: Ride a bike or walk. It’s going to be 75º at 6pm tomorrow.

Each month Nest Realty hosts a social soiree to benefit a different organization or charity. This month we’ve teamed up with Piedmont Place to benefit Claudius Crozet Park, Inc.

Thursday, April 12th, starting at 5:30pm, we’ll have a keg tapped and flowing at The Rooftop Crozet. All you have to do is ask for the Nest keg! We’ll have a donation box available that you can drop a $5, $10 or $20, if so moved.

 

 

*real estate disclosure: many readers know that I am a realtor and Partner at Nest Realty.