Crozet United has a good post this week about Crozet’s population. I’ll get back to that in a minute.

First, some context

Daily Progress in 2020 (my story)

The process has been contentious, especially when it came to the potential for population growth and infrastructure issues around roads, schools and sidewalks in Crozet, which has seen its population increase from about 5,565 in 2010 to approximately 9,224 in 2020, according to census data.

Charlottesville Tomorrow in 2016 (my story)

“This is the best information that we have as to what is going on in Crozet residential development-wise,” said county planner Elaine Echols. “There are projects that are under rezoning, there are projects that have been rezoned and there are projects that are being built by-right.”

Echols said the current population of Crozet is around 6,000 and it is expected that will double by 2030. The master plan has a maximum population cap.

“The number that’s in the master plan is 18,000,” Echols said. “You have about 6,000 people right now and if you add another 6,000 to that, that’s 12,000. That’s our math.”

Crozet Gazette in 2011

Crozet’s population (Census Bureau boundaries roughly overlap the Crozet Growth Area) grew from 2,585 in 2000 to 5,560 last year. That means White Hall District—which started out as the district already closest to ideal—needs to shed about 950 people, which happens to be very near the size of Yellow Mountain precinct, which, broadly, is a southern section of Greenwood. One advantage in being able to shift a whole precinct is that no change of polling place need happen.

How Should Crozet Grow? 2009

Crozet Should Become a Town (2021)

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The Crozet United story

(thanks to Crozet United for permission to republish)

Crozet’s population soars to +12,000, shattering forecasts –  There are 4,864 households in Crozet that have a public water connection according to the Albemarle County Service Authority’s (ACSA) most recent board report.   The ACSA estimates there are 2.5 members in each household, bringing Crozet’s population to 12,160 people as of July 2024 (see page 48 at this link).

Crozet’s population is now 20 years ahead of plan, compared to the model the Rivanna Water and Sewer Authority (RWSA) has been using to predict how long our water supply will last.

According to a 2021 report produced by consulting firm Hazen and Sawyer, RWSA didn’t expect Crozet’s population to reach 12,000 people until the year 2045 (see graphic below or page 17 online here).

Unaccounted for is the fact that Crozet’s population will approach 14,000 people by the time the neighborhoods of Old Trail, Greenwood, Old Dominion, Pleasant Green, Montclair, and the future Downtown Plaza residences are fully built out.

How fast will Crozet’s population continue to grow over the next 20 years?  

Without a reliable answer to that question, it is virtually impossible to predict how much water we’ll need, how large our schools will need to be, when our transportation improvements must be made, and how much tax payer money the County will need to set aside to fund Crozet’s basic infrastructure needs.

In response to an email inquiry requesting the County’s estimate for the future population of Crozet, Supervisor Ann Mallek, who also serves as an ex-officio director of RWSA, would not commit to getting Crozet citizens a specific answer to that question, despite the fact that she also oversees the current effort to update the County’s long range comprehensive plan through the year 2044 (AC44).   

Instead, Mallek asked Crozet citizens to study and participate in the upcoming comprehensive plan meetings and surveys. “Getting the wording right in the [AC44 Comprehensive] plan will lay the groundwork to maintain natural resource protection, and other important elements of our future lives” she said.

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Background Resources for the Curious/Want to be Informed

• Building Permit history for Albemarle County
• Transportation Projects Dashboard
• Albemarle County Land Use Buildout Analysis – 2022 (PDF)
  • A few highlights from the Buildout Analysis: (boldings are mine)

Page 46 – Rezoning buildout trends (in Albemarle County)
In the past five years (2016 through 2021), the County has approved 20 residential
rezoning and special use permit applications. When analyzing the actual buildout of these
rezoning developments, the total number of units approved was approximately 58% of the maximum number of units recommended per the Comprehensive Plan. Or said another way, the actual approval of these recent residential rezonings was about 58 percent of the theoretical maximum buildout

…

When looking at the trends after rezoning approval, it is common for residential rezonings
to build most or all of their approved units. For developments that have built out since
2005, the average final buildout was 94% of the maximum units approved. One significant
exception is Old Trail Village in Crozet, which is not included in the average since it is still
building out. Old Trail is expected to build out at about 1,200 total units, or about half of
the maximum 2,200 approved units.

Page 15

… there are a combined 14,881 units that have either been approved or are under review that could be developed in the future. Hollymead contains 42.6% of the total buildable units in the pipeline, followed by Crozet (15.6%) and Neighborhood 5 (15.1%).

Page 13

For example, several large rezonings approved in the early 2000s have developed later (or less) than expected due to the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Another example is Old Trail Village development in Crozet, which was initially approved in 2005 for a total of 2,200 units. As the development is completed, it is expected to deliver closer to 1,200 total units.

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This from Charlottesville Community Engagement is an absolute must-read, from start to finish. Read it, and ask questions. It’s long, as it needs to be.

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“May 31, 2024: Albemarle County working on public-private partnership to complete long-awaited roadway in Crozet

A single-story edition of the newsletter on an important topic: How do things get built to support growth?

SEAN TUBBS
MAY 31, 2024
…

In today’s installment:

• A group associated with an unsuccessful political campaign in Albemarle County has launched a newsletter
• One article they wrote this week claims Albemarle is working to create a public-private partnership to complete a key piece of transportation infrastructure
• Albemarle County confirms this is happening and points to the recent adoption of guidelines by the Board of Supervisors to govern such partnerships
• The project is not related to economic development, though Albemarle has a recent history of giving names to projects in negotiation”

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I posted on the RealCrozetVA Facebook page about the Crozet United story, and there was actually a good conversation there.

If Eastern Connector gets built, great — it’s been planned for *decades.* Things take time, and it should have been built long ago.

One question that Sean rightfully raises — who are the people behind Crozet United?

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It’s all going to change, and while we love the Crozet Trails, it would be fantastic to have the promised road. Maybe they will build the road with protected bike lanes and sidewalks, to really build for the future.

The journey to build housing continues. Connecting a few threads here about a housing, growth, and proffers.

We do a disservice to our community by not building connected neighborhoods. #crozet

“British Journal of Sports Medicine published a study about managing depression that will make Americans uncomfortable.

They found physical activity to be 1.5x more effective than counselling or the leading medications.”

via email this morning (I’m posting the full document at the end of this post). Bolding is mine

PROJECT: SDP202400023 Montclair Initial Site Plan
MAGISTERIAL DISTRICT: White Hall
TAX MAP/PARCEL: 05600-00-00-091A0 & 056E0-00-00-00200 (portion of)
LOCATION: 5055 Three Notch’d Road
PROPOSAL: Request for initial site plan approval to for eighty-eight (88) proposed dwellings units that would feature single-family detached, single family attached, or other dwelling unit types as allowed by the Application Plan and Code of Development of ZMA202000012. Total site acreage is 14.48 acres and the proposed density is 6.1 units/acre. 74 market-rate units and 14 affordable dwelling units are proposed. Site plan includes creation of new public and private street rights-of-way, landscaping, and 6.34 acres of open space. Water, sewer, drainage, and stormwater utilities are proposed.
ZONING: NMD Neighborhood Model District – residential (3 – 34 units/acre) mixed with commercial, service and industrial uses
PROFFERS: No
ENTRANCE CORRIDOR: Yes
OVERLAY DISTRICT: EC Entrance Corridor Overlay District, Managed & Preserved Steep Slopes Overlay District
COMPREHENSIVE PLAN: COMPREHENSIVE PLAN: Middle Density Residential – Residential densities of 6-12 units per acre, up to 18 units per acre for affordable housing or for construction of small-scale housing types: bungalow courts, small and medium multiplexes, accessory dwelling units, live/work units, small single family cottages, and tiny houses. Secondary uses include religious assembly uses, schools and child care, institutional, and commercial/retail; Neighborhood Density Residential-Residential densities of 3-6 units per acre, housing types including townhomes, single-family attached, single-family detached, accessory dwellings, Secondary uses include religious assembly uses, schools and child care, institutional, and commercial/retail; and Green Systems – parks, greenways, open space, environmental features within the Crozet Master Plan.

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This is relevant re: proffers

From the Crozet Gazette’s story on Ann Mallek’s town hall last month (bolding is mine, again)

A Pleasant Green questioner asked if developers could be forced to build connecting sidewalks between their projects and nearby connecting sidewalks, and the answer was no. “We require developers to build that infrastructure within their developments, but in 2016 the state legislature severely restricted the county’s ability to require what’s called ‘proffers’—commitments to provide additional surrounding structures,” said McDermott. “We’re working right now to catch up throughout the entire county with all those areas that really need sidewalks, and we’re focused right now on ones that are high priority where people are getting injured or those that get a lot of use in high density residential areas. It’s a long list.”

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From Charlottesville Tomorrow in 2016, when proffers went away.

Legislation signed this week by Gov. Terry McAuliffe will change the way Albemarle Countyand other Virginia localities negotiate with developers during the rezoning process. 

“It effectively renders our cash proffer policy [invalid],” said Bill Fritz, Albemarle’s chief of special projects. 

Fritz made his comments at a meeting Thursday of the Fiscal Impact Advisory Committee, a group created to advise the Board of Supervisors on how development affects the county’s operating and capital budgets. 

The committee was briefed Thursday on the impacts the new law would have on a county whose population has increased from 68,040 in 1990 to an estimated 105,000 in 2015.

The Weldon Cooper Center at the University of Virginia projects that number could climb to more than 150,000 by 2040. 

To help cover the costs generated by population growth, the county developed a policy over time that evaluated the impact each rezoning would have on school population, area roads and other government services. 

However, the county formalized a cash policy proffer in October 2007 that established specific amounts all developers would pay per unit to help offset Albemarle’s need for increased real estate tax revenue. 

“The methodology used was more of a broad approach where [staff] would calculate all the costs of impacts and come up with an average,” said Bill Letteri, deputy county executive. “That approach won’t work at all [anymore].” 

The formula adopted then would require developers to pay $20,987 for each single-family detached unit, $14,271 for each attached unit and $14,871 for each unit in an apartment complex. 

The fiscal impact committee already has recommended drastically lowering those amounts in response to legislation passed in 2013, but the new law calls those figures into question. 

“The new legislation requires such a degree of certitude in identifying impacts [of new development] that the averages that we use in the cash proffer policy won’t work,” said Greg Kamptner, deputy county attorney. 

Kamptner said the new law requires that any cash collected in a rezoning can only be spent on infrastructure that directly addresses the impacts of that new development. Localities will have to demonstrate that connection and possibly defend it in court. 

Fritz said the county likely will move back to evaluating each rezoning application on a case-by-case basis. 

“What used to happen [before 2007] is that the model would generate a number and then there would be negotiations about that number,” Fritz said. “With this legislation, we’ll have to be much more careful about what that initial number is.” 

The new law, which goes into effect July 1, does not apply only to cash proffers. Developers have proffered other conditions in previous rezoning, such as land for libraries, courts or schools. 

“The new standard is that for any on-site proffer, such as a dedication of a school site, they now have to be specifically attributable,” Kamptner said, but added that there’s no strict definition yet for what that means. 

“If we have a project that dedicates a school site for an area large enough to handle 400 children, but it turns out the project will only serve 200 children from that project, that school site is now larger than what was specifically attributable to that project,” Kamptner said. 

“That proffer is then in complete jeopardy,” he said.