Crozet is growing. There are now nearly 10K people within 3 miles of Downtown Crozet.

Crozet is a Designated Growth Area in Albemarle County. 

Read the PDF from the County for yourself.

Ongoing series, of undetermined length, in which I am putting together information that will hopefully serve to inform, pique curiosity, and spur Crozetians to ask questions, and get informed and involved … for things that affect everyone’s backyards, not just their own.

Charlottesville Tomorrow in November 2016

Earlier this month (November 2016) county staff unrolled a large map on a table in the Crozet Library and invited members of the committee to inspect it.

“This is the best information that we have as to what is going on in Crozet residential development-wise,” said county planner Elaine Echols. “There are projects that are under rezoning, there are projects that have been rezoned and there are projects that are being built by-right.”

Echols said the current population of Crozet is around 6,000 and it is expected that will double by 2030. The master plan has a maximum population cap.

“The number that’s in the master plan is 18,000,” Echols said. “You have about 6,000 people right now and if you add another 6,000 to that, that’s 12,000. That’s our math.”

Via Charlottesville Tomorrow in January 2017

Demographers at the University of Virginia are forecasting a sharp increase in Albemarle’s population by the year 2045, but a smaller rise for the city of Charlottesville.

…

Lombard said whether projections meet reality will depend on land use decisions made by Virginia localities.

The center’s data projects Albemarle County growing to a population of 118,828 in 2025, 134,104 in 2035 and 148,337 in 2045. The center’s population estimate for 2016 is 105,715, an increase of 6,745 people since the 2010 Census.

“The county is working diligently on implementing the Comprehensive Plan vision, which anticipated this kind of growth,” said Andrew Gast-Bray, the county’s community development director. In 1980, the Board of Supervisors designated five percent of the county’s land for development and restricted growth in the remaining 95 percent.

Related

• Growing Crozet Thoughtfully & Sustainably – September 2017
• Crozet is Going to Grow – And We Can’t Stop It – April 2010
• Weldon Cooper Center population growth
• Crozet Traffic (Letter from a Reader)

PDFs showing Crozet population growth

• Crozet – 3 5 10 demo Crozet designated growth area
• Crozet – 3 5 10 demographic growth
• Enrollment-Growth-and-Demographics-Changes-Version-3 – From Albemarle County Schools

Related to the first two pdfs above

Their projections can be misleading. In general an annualized rate of 2.7% is fairly aggressive on a macro level, but low considering all the ongoing activity. To add 3-4K residents, that’s about 8-10% annual growth, which would be exceptional. The designated growth area historically has grown 4.0% since 2010, so I think a defensible aggressive projection would be somewhere between 4.0 and 8%. A growing job base in Crozet would make that aggressive projection much more realistic. I thought the median age difference between the general 5 mile radius (42.3 years) and designated growth area (39 years) was pretty interesting.

NB: We need an accurate census

Trump’s Pick to Run 2020 Census Has Defended Racial Gerrymandering and Voter Suppression Laws

The census will determine redistricting and voting rights enforcement.

The Series

1. The Beginning – A Conversation with a friend over coffee
2. Prologue – Support local journalists & journalism
3. How Much Money for Infrastructure Has Crozet Gotten?
4. Crozet Population Numbers Keep Growing
5. Crozet Acronyms – What do They Mean?
6. Crozet Water Supply
7. Notes from a Crozet Coffee Conversation
8. Ongoing Crozet Projects of Note
9. Getting Involved in Crozet – Where to Start?
10. … I don’t yet know …

Second in a series of undetermined length, in which I am putting together information that will hopefully serve to inform, pique curiosity, and spur Crozetians to ask questions, and get informed and involved … for things that affect everyone’s backyards, not just their own.

If there are errors or things I’ve gotten wrong, please forgive me, and correct me.

This is the only post (so far) in which I’m throwing information out with little analysis or context, in the hopes that someone will see it for the first time, get curious, dig in, and ask questions. And maybe even post those questions here, or ask the school board (our rep is David Oberg), or the Board of Supervisors (Ann Mallek). Or, even better, have a conversation in person with a friend or neighbor.

My hope is that someone takes this as a prompt to find out more, and share with the community what they find, whether in a follow up post, or in the comments. These are ideas and thoughts, and not fully-fleshed stories.

If there are errors, please correct me. Questions, ask them.

I know that as more houses are built, and few bike/pedestrian/car/parking solutions are proposed or implemented, Crozet is going to have issues. Traffic is an issue.

Start with these PDFs

• Albemarle County’s Capital Improvement Plan Fiscal Years 2017 – 2011, Adopted in March 2017.
• And this – FY17_Adopted_Budget_P_Capital_Improvement_Program FY18_Adopted_Budget_P_Capital_Improvement_Program
• FY18_Adopted_Budget_P_Capital_Improvement_Program

Schools are getting a bit crowded

“When is WAHS getting the $10-20m. Update and expansion it needs?”

But …  in July 2017

Work is underway to design new science labs and modernized classrooms for Western Albemarle High School and its Environmental Studies Academy.

A 10,000 square-foot addition to the school will include three new labs, an office and prep rooms with storage. Seven existing science classrooms and six more classrooms throughout the school building will be renovated.

The project is budgeted at approximately $5.5 million, and was funded through the 2016 bond referendum.

Looks like Western Albemarle High School has been allocated nearly $7M for the Environmental Service Academy, and Henley $2.5M for a new gym.

Crozet Elementary wants $6M for an addition, and Western wants $4.4M for an addition.

How much money has Crozet gotten for infrastructure? And how much do we need?

Discerning how much we’ve gotten is findable (below needs updating for 2017/18). How much do we need? I have no idea.

Crozet Infrastructure Needs

• I know that 250/240 is going to get a roundabout.
• I also know that the Eastern Avenue needs to happen, but it’s *way* down on the list.
• And that Tabor/240/Jarmans needs to be addressed.
• Park Road from Crozet Park needs bike lanes and sidewalks.
• And that in front of schools is an (avoidable at school times) issue. Will they add bike lanes and sidewalks?
• The schools are getting crowded.
• The Four-Way stop needs attention
• Getting out of Old Trail at school times is challenging
• The Crozet Trails need expansion, care, attention.

And that funding is always an issue. The bureaucratic wheels move slowly.

Smart Scale Funding – do you know how this works?   It’s important. Here is a recent update from Charlottesville Tomorrow.

What if … The County didn’t pay millions to the City of Charlottesville every year via the Revenue Sharing Agreement?

Sources of data:

• Albemarle County – Adelaide Study
• Albemarle County – Adopted Budget 2016 Capital Improvement Program (pdf)
• Charlottesville Tomorrow

Second in the series.

The Series

1. The Beginning – A Conversation with a friend over coffee
2. Prologue – Support local journalists & journalism
3. How Much Money for Infrastructure Has Crozet Gotten?
4. Crozet Population Numbers Keep Growing
5. Crozet Acronyms – What do They Mean?
6. Crozet Water Supply
7. Notes from a Crozet Coffee Conversation
8. Ongoing Crozet Projects of Note
9. Getting Involved in Crozet – Where to Start?
10.  … I don’t yet know …

121 blog posts, 108 Instagram posts, and I’m not going to count how many tweets & FB posts.

A lot happened in Crozet in 2017.

Good stuff, some less good stuff, but  2017 ends with lots of new construction (about 1/3 of home sales in Crozet last year were new builds), more civic awareness and frustration, traffic, strong community, great shops, Perrone Robotics, a new privately- designed master plan, Great Valu changing & becoming the Crozet Market, the Crozet Calendar was well used, CCAC meetings provided a wealth of information, and Storify died.

For 2018, let’s be good to each other, get informed and involved even when something doesn’t affect your backyard, remember why we all choose Crozet, and be nice.

What follows is a snip of some of the highlights of 2017, as seen through the RealCrozetVA blog lens. The blog is the home of everything; the RealCrozetVA ecosystem includes Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. I know this; the archives on the blog provide a valuable historical archive for the past decade+ in Crozet.

As I made my way through the year in review (for the second time), one thing is clear – a lot of the stuff happening now started months and years ago (see: NIFI, Adelaide, the Vue, transportation).

As a reminder, I’m a Realtor. My career and profession is representing buyers and sellers. I write/manage RealCrozetVA, now entering its 12th year, as a service to the Crozet community, and because I think RealCrozetVA comprises a “good thing.”

Questions/comments welcomed, here, at the FB post, or contact me.

Here we go.

Continue reading “2017 Year in Review in Crozet”

via email:

Jingle Jog on Christmas Day!

Come join us for the 5th annual Crozet Jingle Jog on Christmas Day! We will start at the Old Trail Town Center at 11:00am and run/bike/walk/dog/stroller around Old Trail for a 5k distance. There is no registration fee, no bibs, and no timing – just fun Christmas Day fellowship with your neighbors and friends and a chance to get out of the house, move your legs, and earn that Christmas dinner!

Consider bringing a non-perishable food item for the Blue Ridge Area Food Bank!

Bikes, dogs, strollers, scooters, etc are all welcome and all are invited! Hope to see you on Christmas Day!

Presented by Crozet Running, Crozet Pediatric Dentistry, Crozet Bicycle Shop, and Cakes by Rachel!