It’s a PDF, and it is a good, insightful and thorough analysis of what is happening in the broader Charlottesville real estate market:
2010 will be an interesting year to watch. Employment numbers continue to creep higher throughout the country and the state; national debt and deficit levels are of a constant concern; the foreclosures and short sales will increase; and yet there are positive signs that our market is making a stride toward normalcy. Number of transactions increased from Q2 to Q3. On a seasonally adjusted rate, sales increased from Q3 to Q4 by more than 10.8%. Charlottesville remains lowest of all Virginia for unemployment rates. And while statewide and nationwide unemployment numbers are up, Charlottesville has fallen for four straight months (Aug thru Nov) to 5.1%, which is lower than we have seen since December of 2008.
The big “what-if” for 2010 will be keeping an eye on Short Sales and Foreclosures across Central Virginia. We will go into this in more detail, but the basic issue is that Short Sales are up all across our state, and Charlottesville is not completely immune. Foreclosures are up significantly in Central Virginia, but are still way behind rates in other parts of the state. If that trend ends, and Central Virginia catches up with Richmond and Northern Virginia, we will see a significant erosion on prices throughout this year. As it stands, signs point to another 6-9 months of price drops followed by some stabilization, but no sign of increases in the next 18-24 months.
