Thoughts on Crozet’s Population in 2024

Crozet United has a good post this week about Crozet’s population. I’ll get back to that in a minute.

First, some context

Daily Progress in 2020 (my story)

The process has been contentious, especially when it came to the potential for population growth and infrastructure issues around roads, schools and sidewalks in Crozet, which has seen its population increase from about 5,565 in 2010 to approximately 9,224 in 2020, according to census data.

Charlottesville Tomorrow in 2016 (my story)

“This is the best information that we have as to what is going on in Crozet residential development-wise,” said county planner Elaine Echols. “There are projects that are under rezoning, there are projects that have been rezoned and there are projects that are being built by-right.”

Echols said the current population of Crozet is around 6,000 and it is expected that will double by 2030. The master plan has a maximum population cap.

“The number that’s in the master plan is 18,000,” Echols said. “You have about 6,000 people right now and if you add another 6,000 to that, that’s 12,000. That’s our math.”

Crozet Gazette in 2011

Crozet’s population (Census Bureau boundaries roughly overlap the Crozet Growth Area) grew from 2,585 in 2000 to 5,560 last year. That means White Hall District—which started out as the district already closest to ideal—needs to shed about 950 people, which happens to be very near the size of Yellow Mountain precinct, which, broadly, is a southern section of Greenwood. One advantage in being able to shift a whole precinct is that no change of polling place need happen.

How Should Crozet Grow? 2009

Crozet Should Become a Town (2021)


The Crozet United story

(thanks to Crozet United for permission to republish)

Crozet’s population soars to +12,000, shattering forecasts –  There are 4,864 households in Crozet that have a public water connection according to the Albemarle County Service Authority’s (ACSA) most recent board report.   The ACSA estimates there are 2.5 members in each household, bringing Crozet’s population to 12,160 people as of July 2024 (see page 48 at this link).

Crozet’s population is now 20 years ahead of plan, compared to the model the Rivanna Water and Sewer Authority (RWSA) has been using to predict how long our water supply will last.

According to a 2021 report produced by consulting firm Hazen and Sawyer, RWSA didn’t expect Crozet’s population to reach 12,000 people until the year 2045 (see graphic below or page 17 online here).

Unaccounted for is the fact that Crozet’s population will approach 14,000 people by the time the neighborhoods of Old Trail, Greenwood, Old Dominion, Pleasant Green, Montclair, and the future Downtown Plaza residences are fully built out.

How fast will Crozet’s population continue to grow over the next 20 years?  

Without a reliable answer to that question, it is virtually impossible to predict how much water we’ll need, how large our schools will need to be, when our transportation improvements must be made, and how much tax payer money the County will need to set aside to fund Crozet’s basic infrastructure needs.

In response to an email inquiry requesting the County’s estimate for the future population of Crozet, Supervisor Ann Mallek, who also serves as an ex-officio director of RWSA, would not commit to getting Crozet citizens a specific answer to that question, despite the fact that she also oversees the current effort to update the County’s long range comprehensive plan through the year 2044 (AC44).   

Instead, Mallek asked Crozet citizens to study and participate in the upcoming comprehensive plan meetings and surveys. “Getting the wording right in the [AC44 Comprehensive] plan will lay the groundwork to maintain natural resource protection, and other important elements of our future lives” she said.


Background Resources for the Curious/Want to be Informed

Page 46 – Rezoning buildout trends (in Albemarle County)
In the past five years (2016 through 2021), the County has approved 20 residential
rezoning and special use permit applications. When analyzing the actual buildout of these
rezoning developments, the total number of units approved was approximately 58% of the maximum number of units recommended per the Comprehensive Plan. Or said another way, the actual approval of these recent residential rezonings was about 58 percent of the theoretical maximum buildout

When looking at the trends after rezoning approval, it is common for residential rezonings
to build most or all of their approved units. For developments that have built out since
2005, the average final buildout was 94% of the maximum units approved. One significant
exception is Old Trail Village in Crozet, which is not included in the average since it is still
building out. Old Trail is expected to build out at about 1,200 total units, or about half of
the maximum 2,200 approved units.

Page 15

… there are a combined 14,881 units that have either been approved or are under review that could be developed in the future. Hollymead contains 42.6% of the total buildable units in the pipeline, followed by Crozet (15.6%) and Neighborhood 5 (15.1%).

Page 13

For example, several large rezonings approved in the early 2000s have developed later (or less) than expected due to the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Another example is Old Trail Village development in Crozet, which was initially approved in 2005 for a total of 2,200 units. As the development is completed, it is expected to deliver closer to 1,200 total units.


What’s Happening Across from Brownsville Market?

Question

What’s Happening Across from Brownsville Market in Old Trail? Is a question I have gotten so many times, I thought I’d answer it here. (I know I wrote about this years ago, but cannot find the story)

Answer

More houses.

“Proposed use: Residential Development Single Family Units”

I do not see access to these houses from 250, but I could be wrong.

Dig into one of the PDFs here.

Spending some time on Albemarle’s cumbersome but ultimately useful CountyView and I found the planning application, comments, and a whole lot more.

Say what you will about developers, but they do have to navigate labyrinthine codes and guides.

Protip:

When searching for the parcel ID of 055E0-01-00-000A3, remove the hyphens. And no, even though I’m a residential Realtor, I don’t immediately understand every bit of development minutiae that you’ll see at CountyView.



Would be amazing if they put sidewalks here, too.

Crozet & Charlottesville Real Estate Conversation – July 2024

Jim Duncan and Greg Slater with Nest Realty Charlottesville talk about the Charlottesville and Albemarle real estate markets in mid-2024, inventory levels, interest rate lock-in effect on the market, new construction and resale trends, sellers’ anchoring on prices.

We talk about at what interest rate will the market open up again, what motivates buyers to move, the skill of actively listening, bringing lots to the market, the process of interviewing buyer and seller agents and learning the market, and the value of experience and hindsight.

Long, and good and informative.

Have questions? Ask us.

Jim – 434-242-7140/[email protected]

Greg – 434-981-6655/[email protected]

We get into a cornucopia of real estate topics:

  • NAR Settlements, Buyer Agent fees, and Sellers offering commissions
  • New construction & resale data
  • 2025 predictions
  • Sellers’ anchors on price, and understanding the market
  • The end of available lots in Crozet?
  • Inventory, sold data, bleeding edge information to advise clients

Greg and I love what we do, and love to study, analyze, and talk about real estate.

Part 1

Part 2

Project Heron Project (to build the Eastern Connector?)

The Project Heron Project from Crozet United is an interesting one. The “Publishers: Eric Schmitz, Brad Rykal, and Jeff Stone” are doing an enormous amount of work to find out what is happening with the Oak Bluff + Eastern Avenue project.

Read the whole series — it’s a remarkable effort.

I don’t have conclusions other than these:

  • The perception of backroom dealing is counterproductive to good public policy; people should know better.
  • The connector needs to be built, we need more dense (read: attached) housing (median price of new construction single family home in Crozet since 1 January 2023 is $713K – 67 homes, median price of attached homes since then is $460K – 147 homes), and we need appropriate future-proof infrastructure.
  • The County needs to do things transparently at the appropriate times, while acknowledging that some things necessarily need to be done behind closed doors. When coming from a position lacking trust, perception is more important than ever.
  • Albemarle County – and Virginia – have not built the necessary infrastructure in Crozet; that is inarguable.
  • AND we need sidewalks along Park Road from Westhall and points east to Crozet Park. Why is this so hard?
  • Build the road, and build it with its original alignment where it’s been expected for decades.

I got into it a bit on Twitter when I was asking for the “who” was behind Crozet United. Who the publishers are matters. There’s a reason journalists put their names on what they write, and I’m glad the authors put their names on one post after the Twitter exchange, which I’m sure is purely coincidental.


PS – Here is the RSS feed for Crozet United.

Roads, Herons, Moving Green Olive

Once again, I’m grateful for the Crozet Gazette. A few stories from July’s issue:

Road Widening at 240/250 (the one with the stoplight)

via email –

TURN LANE WIDENING ON CROZET AVE. TO CAUSE DELAYS

Crews in Albemarle Co. will be working at the intersection of U.S. 240 and U.S. 250

CULPEPER – Beginning Monday, July 8, a contractor for the Virginia Department of Transportation will begin work to widen the southbound turn lane from U.S. 240 (Crozet Avenue) onto U.S. 250 (Rockfish Gap Turnpike) westbound in Albemarle County.

Workers will set up a flagging operation to extend the width of the turn lane, adding more space for drivers waiting to turn westbound. This allows southbound traffic to move more efficiently through the intersection.

While drivers in Crozet will have access to the turn lane during construction, the work will cause delays during rush hour in the morning and the evening. The latest average traffic count reports 12,000 vehicles travel U.S. 250 through that intersection daily. Please add some extra time to your commute to allow for congestion.

The work is expected to finish by July 19.

Roundabout at Old Trail

Here’s hoping!

Via Charlottesville Community Engagement

Old Trail Drive and US 250 West Intersection Improvements – “This project would construct a 2 and 1 hybrid roundabout at the Old Trail Drive/250 intersection with pedestrian crosswalks and appropriate safety features on the northern and eastern legs of the roundabout.”

Assuming the 250/Old Trail roundabout gets built, it will be a great addition to the traffic flow, and hopefully more will walk or ride from Old Trail and the neighborhoods along Jarmans to the schools.

I suspect the kids will be the ones who will have to fight for their right to not get in cars or buses.

These things take time; good to see Albemarle advocating for more roundabouts and more pedestrian improvements.

Read more about all the Albemarle County Smart Scale applications in the County’s PDF.

Building a Bridge to Shape the Future of Crozet

“Plant trees the shade of which you’ll never enjoy” thinking —

The Eastern Connector and Downtown Crozet redevelopment — These are the two moments/projects that will shape and define the future of Crozet. We as a “town” and County have an opportunity to shape how people get around Crozet, how we interact with our neighbors, how we shop, how we do everything.

Building a bridge that connects 250 to 240 without providing protected bike lanes (paint is neither protection nor infrastructure) and functional sidewalks will be a failure to seize the opportunity.

Imagine, if you will, if the Eastern Connector bridge became a sign of Crozet’s future. Protected bike lanes for the entirety of Eastern Avenue, grade-separated sidewalks, a thoughtful way to show that Crozet is looking to the future, building things for our kids’ kids rather than for ourselves.

More housing – dense housing – that bring more people to Crozet, which will bring more business, more retail, more vibrancy. (the arguments about “it used to be better!” fall flat — we are all immigrants from somewhere)

We say we care about our neighbors, we say we care about climate, we say we care about our kids and their mental and physical health. The Eastern Connector bridge is the opportunity to demonstrate what we say we value.

People will walk or ride bicycles if the route is accessible and they feel safe. Kids want autonomy. Parents (say) they want their kids to have autonomy. Give the kids the space and the infrastructure do live.

And make the Park Ridge/Eastern Connector intersection a roundabout.

Or nah, just build the bridge for cars and for the giant SUVs that idle when picking the kids up at school and practice, because walking or riding a bike for 1.5-2 miles is an impossible task because … why?

Two of these photos are from Portland, Oregon.



More reading

Eastern Connector May be Built After All

Pretty sure this is where the road will go

This from Charlottesville Community Engagement is an absolute must-read, from start to finish. Read it, and ask questions. It’s long, as it needs to be.


May 31, 2024: Albemarle County working on public-private partnership to complete long-awaited roadway in Crozet


A single-story edition of the newsletter on an important topic: How do things get built to support growth?

SEAN TUBBS
MAY 31, 2024

In today’s installment:

  • A group associated with an unsuccessful political campaign in Albemarle County has launched a newsletter
  • One article they wrote this week claims Albemarle is working to create a public-private partnership to complete a key piece of transportation infrastructure
  • Albemarle County confirms this is happening and points to the recent adoption of guidelines by the Board of Supervisors to govern such partnerships
  • The project is not related to economic development, though Albemarle has a recent history of giving names to projects in negotiation”

I posted on the RealCrozetVA Facebook page about the Crozet United story, and there was actually a good conversation there.

If Eastern Connector gets built, great — it’s been planned for *decades.* Things take time, and it should have been built long ago.

One question that Sean rightfully raises — who are the people behind Crozet United?


A pink survey flag in a field

It’s all going to change, and while we love the Crozet Trails, it would be fantastic to have the promised road. Maybe they will build the road with protected bike lanes and sidewalks, to really build for the future.