Climate Change & Planning Commissions of Albemarle & Charlottesville

In this week’s Week Ahead from Charlottesville Community Engagement, there is this piece (as always, please read the whole thing)

The two Planning Commissions will be asked to weigh in broadly on land use strategies such as compact development and conservation of natural resources to provide ecosystem services. More intense residential development theoretically provides more people for public transportation and land under conservation can capture carbon and provide clean drinking water. 

“Use more compact development and other techniques to increase walkability and accessibility, which increases transportation options during climate hazards, decreases transportation cost burden and supports baseline public health,” reads one of two prompts. 

For that to work, there will need to be a lot of coordination during each jurisdiction’s scrutiny of individual projects that are right on the border.  Let’s take a look at two different development proposals on U.S. 29 along the perimeter in areas where Comprehensive Plans of communities call for large numbers of new residential housing. 


I wrote the following on RealCentralVA, and this it applicable and relevant to Crozet; we are, afterall, not a metaphorical island within Albemarle County or Central Virginia.

I’ve said and written before – we need to re imagine and rebuild our society –

our built environment, how we move around (people, commerce), how and where we work and farm, and we need societal cohesion and the right leadership to accomplish this, from the local to the national levels.

Cynically acknowledging that that’s not going to happen … we do the best we can.

Charlottesville and Albemarle need to aggressively plan for more inbound climate migration. We aren’t safe, but we are likely safer than other parts of the world and US. Housing, transportation, services, etc.  What’s the saying? If it costs too much to address climate change before it happens, how much will it cost when it does?


Charlottesville isn’t safe from climate change, but I’d argue that some of the data says we’re safer.

I was in a meeting this week at Nest, with about 30-40 agents, and we talked about Zillow’s new display of climate risk, and I mentioned that this is something our buyer and seller clients will be referencing and asking about; almost every person in the room voiced agreement with this, and that our clients are referencing climate change and climate risk.

““You’ll never find an insurer saying, ‘I don’t believe in climate change,’ ” John Neal, the C.E.O. of Lloyd’s of London, the insurance behemoth, told the Financial Times a few months back. “The frequency and severity of weather-related losses are exponential.” Testifying to Congress last year, Eric Andersen, the president of Aon, the world’s largest reinsurance intermediary, said, “Just as the U.S. economy was overexposed to mortgage risk in 2008, the economy today is overexposed to climate risk.”” – the New Yorker, 10/14/2024


I was in a meeting talking about green/energy efficient building meeting earlier this year, and someone asked a question about the HVAC or something, and the builder’s answer struck, and has stuck with, me.

“Our homes are so tight that they are designed to not have the windows opened; the interior climate is conditioned and programmed to be closed.” (yes, I’m paraphrasing)

That’s not good. Listen to the entire How I Built This podcast series. Please. We are on this world together, and isolating from each other is, in a word, bad.


The tl;dr:

  • Climate change is going to drive more people to relocate to Charlottesville, Albemarle, Central Virginia
  • Our communities need to execute plans in anticipation of this – housing, infrastructure, denser multi-use communities.
  • With higher demand, I suspect prices will increase – or at least be somewhat protected from broader market fluctuations.
  • Nowhere is “safe” from climate change
  • Homeowners insurance will continue to increase
  • Buyers and sellers (and agents) now have more tools at their disposal to educate themselves about climate risks
  • Sooner rather than later, homes with “high” climate risks will be harder to sell; and much like school districts with “good” ratings do better, the ratings lack the appropriate nuance and will do good, and will also do bad.

Questions about the Charlottesville real estate market, whether you’re moving here, or selling in Charlottesville? Please ask me. Or text/call – 434-242-7140

I started working on a climate-focused post last week, and then Sunday, this post on Reddit popped up:

Hi! My partner and I are looking to purchase a house in Charlottesville to get the hell outta SWFL and the hurricanes and tornadoes now too. How do you all consider weather to be there in view of the global warming and such?

The questions I’m wondering, as our climate changes

  • How does one evaluate climate risk?
    • Underground utilities?
    • Sustainable water supply?
    • Easy transportation to necessities in under X miles?
    • Preparation of local governments?
    • Infrastructure?
    • Proximity to freshwater and government resources?
    • Are we finally going to use the Homeowners Insurance Addendum in the Charlottesville market? I wrote about it first in 2009.

I don’t know the answers, but as a Realtor representing buyers and sellers, I think I need to know more than I do now.

Rightly or wrongly, the Charlottesville area is considered safer with respect to climate change than many other parts of the United States.

It’s impossible to miss the stories from Florida, and everywhere else, about massively increasing homeowners’ insurance. And it’s impossible to miss that the market and climate are changing.

From the WSJ’s The Great Florida Migration is Coming Undone

“Across much of Florida and especially along the western coast, a surplus of inventory and dwindling buyer interest are slowing sales and keeping homes on the market longer. That is cooling off what had been one of America’s biggest housing booms this decade.

Tropical storms and hurricanes, increasingly hitting the state’s western coast, are making matters worse.

Now less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene hit, Tampa Bay is bracing for Hurricane Milton. …

Florida’s population soared between 2021 and 2023, making it the fastest-growing state during much of that period. Remote work and other lifestyle changes that were spurred by the pandemic accelerated a migration trend to the Southeast, and the Sunshine State in particular.

The warm climate, lack of state income tax and less business regulation than in many other states made Florida a hotbed for corporate relocations and new residents. For wealthier migrants from New York, Chicago and California, Florida homes seemed like a bargain.

But surging insurance costs, high mortgage rates and high home prices have more people reassessing the Florida dream. Those who must sell their homes right now because of life changes are finding a frosty reception as demand dwindles.”


I was talking recently to a colleague about finding a resiliency or home-hardening expert to

1) learn from and 2) come to Nest and help us learn more about what we could be sharing with our buyer and seller clients.

Their response – “with all the close-in neighborhoods, your house will be flooded by your neighbors, no matter how hard your house is.” And that made me think of this story

The developers of the new Hunters Point community, Pearl Homes, billed the property as the first “net-zero” single-family home development in the US, meaning residents produce more energy from solar panels than they need, with the excess energy either being stored or sold back to the grid – in a state where most electricity is generated by burning natural gas, a planet-warming fossil fuel.

They also boast some of the most sustainable, energy-efficient and hurricane-proof homes in the country: The streets surrounding the homes are intentionally designed to flood so houses don’t. Power and internet lines are buried to avoid wind damage. The sturdy concrete walls, hurricane-proof windows and doors are fortified with a layer of foam insulation, providing extra safety against the most violent storms.

Climate resiliency and storm protection were built into the fabric of the homes. And while the newly developed homes have endured a few storms since people moved in around February 2023, Hurricanes Helene and Milton put those features to the true test over the last two weeks.

He’s right. Hardening houses is one thing. Hardening and building communities is what matters. Look to the communities in Western North Carolina for examples of how communities respond.

Like building sidewalks and other infrastructure, these things need to be done at scale, and not pieces here and there. My house might be fine, but if my neighbors’ aren’t, we have some work to do.


In 2012, Crozet, Virginia experienced a derecho. And we heard the word “derecho” for the first time.

A storm came, ripped off shingles, knocked out power for a week, it was freaking hot, trees were down everywhere. Crozet Fire Department was distributing water. It was so hot.

The people at Mudhouse – and everywhere else in Crozet –  were manually grinding coffee, music was playing on a radio, and they were boiling water on their gas stove to make the community coffee.

Facebook was already awful, and Twitter was already better for rapid information dissemination.

The community came through, and it’s incumbent upon us to build and strengthen our communities, as we are going to need it.

Albemarle’s Comp Plan Planning Continues

The Comprehensive Plan is one of the ways Albemarle County tries (tried?) to manage growth in the County.

“How does the manage growth?” Is a question many of my County clients ask. That’s a good question with a complex answer.

My simple opinion is that we need more density and more non-car-centric infrastructure, more mixed-use developments and enticements, and less parking. Related stories: Thoughts on Crozet’s Population, and Moving to Charlottesville/Albemarle/Central Virginia for a Climate Safe Haven?


I’ve seen occasional reports about the AC44 process, — they are in Phase 3 now — and Sean Tubbs’ Charlottesville Community Engagement has been offering up some fantastic information, threading the current process with the historical. For those interested in Albemarle beyond our/your immediate backyards, please find some time to dig in, and maybe even attend some work sessions on the Comp Plan.

The things decided during this process will affect generations to come.


Part of the story at Information Charlottesville

“Supervisor Ann Mallek said she felt there was language missing from the framework that explained why the rural area was created in the first place. Soon after the South Fork Rivanna Reservoir was created in 1967, officials realized it was silting in quickly and intense development nearby would speed up that process by increasing the amount of stormwater runoff. 

“What is missing here is mention of the drinking water, watershed protection for the growth area,” Mallek said. “I think it’s really important for the community to understand where their drinking water comes from and to know that it’s not just frou frou scenery out there, but it is real survival out there that’s being provided.”  

Supervisor Mike Pruitt of the Scottsville District, the youngest member of the Board, said he appreciated understanding the historical reasons why the growth area was put into place. 

“I did not originally appreciate as a newcomer to this community the role that water quality had made in the formulation of our Comprehensive Plan,” Pruitt said. “I do think that detail is something that is critical and something that when we communicate with, frankly, young people in the urban ring, young people in Charlottesville, people who have arrived in this community and don’t quite understand the history of this plan.”

Supervisor Gallaway said the decision on whether to expand the growth area is a political conversation. He added there are many people who want to expand the growth area who also want to protect water quality. 

Staff will come back with suggested language on this point at their next meeting with the Board. 

Strange bedfellows

Before Supervisors got into their review, two members of the public took advantage of the comment period. 

Crozet resident Tom Loach has been a watchdog on the growth area for many years. He has recently been calling upon Supervisors to end the land use taxation program that allows rural area property owners to pay a lower amount if they are engaged in agricultural activity. 

“While I don’t often agree with the development community on growth and development issues, I have to agree that the county can no longer kick the can down the road when it comes to growth area expansion,” Loach said. “If in fact a trajectory towards expansion of our growth areas, or conversely, the end of rural preservation, then note there is no further need for land use tax subsidy program.”

Loach said the program has cost residents hundreds of millions of dollars over the years to subsidize rural preservation and it will be up to Supervisors to decide how to proceed.”

Thoughts on Crozet’s Population in 2024

Crozet United has a good post this week about Crozet’s population. I’ll get back to that in a minute.

First, some context

Daily Progress in 2020 (my story)

The process has been contentious, especially when it came to the potential for population growth and infrastructure issues around roads, schools and sidewalks in Crozet, which has seen its population increase from about 5,565 in 2010 to approximately 9,224 in 2020, according to census data.

Charlottesville Tomorrow in 2016 (my story)

“This is the best information that we have as to what is going on in Crozet residential development-wise,” said county planner Elaine Echols. “There are projects that are under rezoning, there are projects that have been rezoned and there are projects that are being built by-right.”

Echols said the current population of Crozet is around 6,000 and it is expected that will double by 2030. The master plan has a maximum population cap.

“The number that’s in the master plan is 18,000,” Echols said. “You have about 6,000 people right now and if you add another 6,000 to that, that’s 12,000. That’s our math.”

Crozet Gazette in 2011

Crozet’s population (Census Bureau boundaries roughly overlap the Crozet Growth Area) grew from 2,585 in 2000 to 5,560 last year. That means White Hall District—which started out as the district already closest to ideal—needs to shed about 950 people, which happens to be very near the size of Yellow Mountain precinct, which, broadly, is a southern section of Greenwood. One advantage in being able to shift a whole precinct is that no change of polling place need happen.

How Should Crozet Grow? 2009

Crozet Should Become a Town (2021)


The Crozet United story

(thanks to Crozet United for permission to republish)

Crozet’s population soars to +12,000, shattering forecasts –  There are 4,864 households in Crozet that have a public water connection according to the Albemarle County Service Authority’s (ACSA) most recent board report.   The ACSA estimates there are 2.5 members in each household, bringing Crozet’s population to 12,160 people as of July 2024 (see page 48 at this link).

Crozet’s population is now 20 years ahead of plan, compared to the model the Rivanna Water and Sewer Authority (RWSA) has been using to predict how long our water supply will last.

According to a 2021 report produced by consulting firm Hazen and Sawyer, RWSA didn’t expect Crozet’s population to reach 12,000 people until the year 2045 (see graphic below or page 17 online here).

Unaccounted for is the fact that Crozet’s population will approach 14,000 people by the time the neighborhoods of Old Trail, Greenwood, Old Dominion, Pleasant Green, Montclair, and the future Downtown Plaza residences are fully built out.

How fast will Crozet’s population continue to grow over the next 20 years?  

Without a reliable answer to that question, it is virtually impossible to predict how much water we’ll need, how large our schools will need to be, when our transportation improvements must be made, and how much tax payer money the County will need to set aside to fund Crozet’s basic infrastructure needs.

In response to an email inquiry requesting the County’s estimate for the future population of Crozet, Supervisor Ann Mallek, who also serves as an ex-officio director of RWSA, would not commit to getting Crozet citizens a specific answer to that question, despite the fact that she also oversees the current effort to update the County’s long range comprehensive plan through the year 2044 (AC44).   

Instead, Mallek asked Crozet citizens to study and participate in the upcoming comprehensive plan meetings and surveys. “Getting the wording right in the [AC44 Comprehensive] plan will lay the groundwork to maintain natural resource protection, and other important elements of our future lives” she said.


Background Resources for the Curious/Want to be Informed

Page 46 – Rezoning buildout trends (in Albemarle County)
In the past five years (2016 through 2021), the County has approved 20 residential
rezoning and special use permit applications. When analyzing the actual buildout of these
rezoning developments, the total number of units approved was approximately 58% of the maximum number of units recommended per the Comprehensive Plan. Or said another way, the actual approval of these recent residential rezonings was about 58 percent of the theoretical maximum buildout

When looking at the trends after rezoning approval, it is common for residential rezonings
to build most or all of their approved units. For developments that have built out since
2005, the average final buildout was 94% of the maximum units approved. One significant
exception is Old Trail Village in Crozet, which is not included in the average since it is still
building out. Old Trail is expected to build out at about 1,200 total units, or about half of
the maximum 2,200 approved units.

Page 15

… there are a combined 14,881 units that have either been approved or are under review that could be developed in the future. Hollymead contains 42.6% of the total buildable units in the pipeline, followed by Crozet (15.6%) and Neighborhood 5 (15.1%).

Page 13

For example, several large rezonings approved in the early 2000s have developed later (or less) than expected due to the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Another example is Old Trail Village development in Crozet, which was initially approved in 2005 for a total of 2,200 units. As the development is completed, it is expected to deliver closer to 1,200 total units.


What’s Happening Across from Brownsville Market?

Question

What’s Happening Across from Brownsville Market in Old Trail? Is a question I have gotten so many times, I thought I’d answer it here. (I know I wrote about this years ago, but cannot find the story)

Answer

More houses.

“Proposed use: Residential Development Single Family Units”

I do not see access to these houses from 250, but I could be wrong.

Dig into one of the PDFs here.

Spending some time on Albemarle’s cumbersome but ultimately useful CountyView and I found the planning application, comments, and a whole lot more.

Say what you will about developers, but they do have to navigate labyrinthine codes and guides.

Protip:

When searching for the parcel ID of 055E0-01-00-000A3, remove the hyphens. And no, even though I’m a residential Realtor, I don’t immediately understand every bit of development minutiae that you’ll see at CountyView.



Would be amazing if they put sidewalks here, too.

Crozet & Charlottesville Real Estate Conversation – July 2024

Jim Duncan and Greg Slater with Nest Realty Charlottesville talk about the Charlottesville and Albemarle real estate markets in mid-2024, inventory levels, interest rate lock-in effect on the market, new construction and resale trends, sellers’ anchoring on prices.

We talk about at what interest rate will the market open up again, what motivates buyers to move, the skill of actively listening, bringing lots to the market, the process of interviewing buyer and seller agents and learning the market, and the value of experience and hindsight.

Long, and good and informative.

Have questions? Ask us.

Jim – 434-242-7140/[email protected]

Greg – 434-981-6655/[email protected]

We get into a cornucopia of real estate topics:

  • NAR Settlements, Buyer Agent fees, and Sellers offering commissions
  • New construction & resale data
  • 2025 predictions
  • Sellers’ anchors on price, and understanding the market
  • The end of available lots in Crozet?
  • Inventory, sold data, bleeding edge information to advise clients

Greg and I love what we do, and love to study, analyze, and talk about real estate.

Part 1

Part 2

Project Heron Project (to build the Eastern Connector?)

The Project Heron Project from Crozet United is an interesting one. The “Publishers: Eric Schmitz, Brad Rykal, and Jeff Stone” are doing an enormous amount of work to find out what is happening with the Oak Bluff + Eastern Avenue project.

Read the whole series — it’s a remarkable effort.

I don’t have conclusions other than these:

  • The perception of backroom dealing is counterproductive to good public policy; people should know better.
  • The connector needs to be built, we need more dense (read: attached) housing (median price of new construction single family home in Crozet since 1 January 2023 is $713K – 67 homes, median price of attached homes since then is $460K – 147 homes), and we need appropriate future-proof infrastructure.
  • The County needs to do things transparently at the appropriate times, while acknowledging that some things necessarily need to be done behind closed doors. When coming from a position lacking trust, perception is more important than ever.
  • Albemarle County – and Virginia – have not built the necessary infrastructure in Crozet; that is inarguable.
  • AND we need sidewalks along Park Road from Westhall and points east to Crozet Park. Why is this so hard?
  • Build the road, and build it with its original alignment where it’s been expected for decades.

I got into it a bit on Twitter when I was asking for the “who” was behind Crozet United. Who the publishers are matters. There’s a reason journalists put their names on what they write, and I’m glad the authors put their names on one post after the Twitter exchange, which I’m sure is purely coincidental.


PS – Here is the RSS feed for Crozet United.

Roads, Herons, Moving Green Olive

Once again, I’m grateful for the Crozet Gazette. A few stories from July’s issue:

Road Widening at 240/250 (the one with the stoplight)

via email –

TURN LANE WIDENING ON CROZET AVE. TO CAUSE DELAYS

Crews in Albemarle Co. will be working at the intersection of U.S. 240 and U.S. 250

CULPEPER – Beginning Monday, July 8, a contractor for the Virginia Department of Transportation will begin work to widen the southbound turn lane from U.S. 240 (Crozet Avenue) onto U.S. 250 (Rockfish Gap Turnpike) westbound in Albemarle County.

Workers will set up a flagging operation to extend the width of the turn lane, adding more space for drivers waiting to turn westbound. This allows southbound traffic to move more efficiently through the intersection.

While drivers in Crozet will have access to the turn lane during construction, the work will cause delays during rush hour in the morning and the evening. The latest average traffic count reports 12,000 vehicles travel U.S. 250 through that intersection daily. Please add some extra time to your commute to allow for congestion.

The work is expected to finish by July 19.

Roundabout at Old Trail

Here’s hoping!

Via Charlottesville Community Engagement

Old Trail Drive and US 250 West Intersection Improvements – “This project would construct a 2 and 1 hybrid roundabout at the Old Trail Drive/250 intersection with pedestrian crosswalks and appropriate safety features on the northern and eastern legs of the roundabout.”

Assuming the 250/Old Trail roundabout gets built, it will be a great addition to the traffic flow, and hopefully more will walk or ride from Old Trail and the neighborhoods along Jarmans to the schools.

I suspect the kids will be the ones who will have to fight for their right to not get in cars or buses.

These things take time; good to see Albemarle advocating for more roundabouts and more pedestrian improvements.

Read more about all the Albemarle County Smart Scale applications in the County’s PDF.

Building a Bridge to Shape the Future of Crozet

“Plant trees the shade of which you’ll never enjoy” thinking —

The Eastern Connector and Downtown Crozet redevelopment — These are the two moments/projects that will shape and define the future of Crozet. We as a “town” and County have an opportunity to shape how people get around Crozet, how we interact with our neighbors, how we shop, how we do everything.

Building a bridge that connects 250 to 240 without providing protected bike lanes (paint is neither protection nor infrastructure) and functional sidewalks will be a failure to seize the opportunity.

Imagine, if you will, if the Eastern Connector bridge became a sign of Crozet’s future. Protected bike lanes for the entirety of Eastern Avenue, grade-separated sidewalks, a thoughtful way to show that Crozet is looking to the future, building things for our kids’ kids rather than for ourselves.

More housing – dense housing – that bring more people to Crozet, which will bring more business, more retail, more vibrancy. (the arguments about “it used to be better!” fall flat — we are all immigrants from somewhere)

We say we care about our neighbors, we say we care about climate, we say we care about our kids and their mental and physical health. The Eastern Connector bridge is the opportunity to demonstrate what we say we value.

People will walk or ride bicycles if the route is accessible and they feel safe. Kids want autonomy. Parents (say) they want their kids to have autonomy. Give the kids the space and the infrastructure do live.

And make the Park Ridge/Eastern Connector intersection a roundabout.

Or nah, just build the bridge for cars and for the giant SUVs that idle when picking the kids up at school and practice, because walking or riding a bike for 1.5-2 miles is an impossible task because … why?

Two of these photos are from Portland, Oregon.



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