Jim Duncan and Greg Slater with Nest Realty Charlottesville talk about the Charlottesville and Albemarle real estate markets in mid-2024, inventory levels, interest rate lock-in effect on the market, new construction and resale trends, sellers’ anchoring on prices.
We talk about at what interest rate will the market open up again, what motivates buyers to move, the skill of actively listening, bringing lots to the market, the process of interviewing buyer and seller agents and learning the market, and the value of experience and hindsight.
… do we have any idea how many new housing units are going to be added to the area in the next six months year or two years? Is there anyway to get that info?
My first answer:
Now, that’s a fun and interesting question. Let me see what I can put together. I would guess 150 to 200 in 2024.
At this time last year, there had been 107 contracts in the Brownsville + Crozet Elementary school districts, and 50 (47%) were new.
This year (1/1/24-4/30/24), there have been 131 contracts, with 63 of those being new. For context, Baker Butler accounted for 53% of new residential construction and Crozet + Brownsville accounted for 18% of new construction in Albemarle County in 2023.
My guess for 2024 completed new construction sales?
140 via the Albemarle County Building permits report
Crozet inventory, market segment breakdown – single family vs attached homes, why Crozet is a great place to live, and a where we are in the Crozet real estate market in March 2024.
One fun stat – in 2023, attached home sales increased by 71%, driven in large part by price point demand and lifestyle demands.
Questions? We love to talk about real estate. Greg Slater – 434-981-6655 Jim Duncan – 434-242-7140
2023 was a year of low inventory, lots of new construction, and mostly increasing home values in Crozet. Have questions? Ask me. This is a reasonably high-level overview of the Crozet real estate market, and your specific micro-market will vary.
A quick look at some data to level set for 2024.
In 2023:
336 homes (attached + detached) sold in Crozet + Brownsville Elementary School districts. (318 in 2022)
152 of those were new construction. (129 in 2022)
Average sale price of single family home in Crozet in 2023 – $708K; $727 in 2022.
Average sale price of an attached home in Crozet in 2023 – $479K; $470K in 2022.
That’s just data. But what does it mean?
Rising interest rates in 2023 did not affect prices as much as many expected. What we did see as a result of higher rates were more people choosing to stay in their homes because the next place was so much more expensive due to increasing values and increasing interest rates.
We had fewer resale listings in 2023 than we did in 2022 — 189 new listings in 2022 and 167 new listings in 2023.
New construction is filling some of the void, and we need even more new construction that is affordable to more — more grandparents want to move to Crozet to be close to the grandkids (and the kids want parents to come help! Childcare is *expensive.*). More kids want to move closer to parents in Crozet. By restricting growth and not bringing more businesses and building commensurate non-car-centric infrastructure, we are making poor community decisions.
Great. But what does it mean to you?
That depends. What are you looking to do? Sell your home in Crozet? Buy a home in Crozet??Understand your 2024 Albemarle County real estate assessment?
My answer is almost everything in real estate starts with “it depends;”
More specifically, if you’re considering any of the above, what does the data mean to you?
Not much, other than we tend to have more buyers than sellers in the Crozet real estate market, and with the right preparation, guidance, council, marketing, and representation, sellers should do well.
Hopefully, this relatively high overview of our market gives you some insight. Know this — pricematters.
The best answer to “what does this data mean to me?” — ask questions.
What’s 2024 going to bring to Crozet’s real estate market?
Competition. Continued low inventory. Increased buyer competition as interest rates moderate. Hopefully dirt pushing on the Downtown Crozet project.
Sellers who need and want to sell.
Buyers who need and want to buy.
It’s going to be a good year in Crozet.
Source of all numbers: Charlottesville MLS. Images created with ChatGPT-4
I write these every month, and send to clients — past, present, and likely future — and thought there’s likely a fair bit of crossover between those who read Crozet news, and those who are curious/interested in broader Charlottesville – Albemarle information and real estate stories.
Happy December, nearly January. Next month, I’ll be level-setting 2024’s Charlottesville area real estate market. This month — the value of knowing what’s around the corner, seeking community, the market and an offer to you to talk about your house’s value.
Questions? I’m always here. 434-242-7140 or reply to this note (after sharing with a friend, if you’re so inclined).
The Market.
The year is nearly over, final closings will be taking place this week. And 2024 will be a new start. 2023 saw ups (interest rates) and downs (inventory), and lots of changes on the horizon (lawsuits).
Interested in a check-in on your house’s value, if only to just see if Zillow is accurate?Ask me – just reply to this email.
Best answer right now? I suspect we’re going to see a bit more of the same.
The City of Charlottesville has revamped its zoning, and despite the angst, I suspect the effects will be slow and then fast.
Albemarle County remains a great place to live, and new construction shows that people a) want to live here and b) haven’t been able to find existing houses to fill their housing needs. As of 27 December, 1,685 homes have sold in Albemarle; 503 (30%) of those were new construction. Last year 1,854 homes sold; 442 (24%) were new. We’ll see more new construction.
Average sold price of the 611 single-family homes that have sold in 2023 in Albemarle County with at least 3 bedrooms and 2 baths in 2023? $820K. Median? $662K.
Average price of the 200 single-family homes that sold in 2023 in the City of Charlottesville with at least 3 bedrooms and 2 baths in 2023? $706K. Median? $604K.
Interest rates are falling. 6.5% is much better than 8.25%. We’re going to see more buyers coming to the market, and keep having low inventory — many buyers already have homes, and either don’t have mortgages or have rates under 4%, so they won’t be sellers.
When representing sellers, for pricing and marketing conversations, we talk about how many homes they will be competing with. For buyers, we talk about how many homes will come on the market that will fit in their specificmarket segments.
For January, I’m working on a level-setting post: number of homes on the market, prices, days on the market, what may be hot (or cold) market segments, and a bit more. I generally write these to satisfy my own curiosity and hope that you find it interesting, too.
For those looking to buy or sell next year — what questions do you have?
2024 coming at us like a freight train.
We knew it was coming. It still sucks.
2023 vs 2019
And that’s okay.
We bought our home in 2004. We’re still there. (“Move” is a four-letter word.) We knew the field where the road ends would one day be houses. We talked about it when we made the offer, knowing that the place where our dogs pooped would become a new neighborhood.
Welp, now that the road is open, and we are welcoming new pedestrians, bike riders, dogs, and fast cars, I’m glad that we knew it was coming.
Despite my efforts to have the road opened to only people not in cars, and for Albemarle County to make a decision that worked to alter human movement patterns, the road is open. (They were walking/riding as soon as it was possible before the road was opened — why not try to encourage that?)
And I’m glad we knew. And it still sucks. And it’s great — more people walking, riding, and yes driving. And if the County ever actually builds the road they’ve been promising, it will be even more walkable and bikeable to downtown Crozet.
I’ve long written about how I represent my clients with professionalism, empathy, and shared experiences — marriage, job changes, kids, grandkids, aging parents, and now firsthand, having the adjacent property change use, altering our enjoyment of the home. Not worse, but different. Change is good.
I paid to renew my license the other day. $80 to the Commonwealth of Virginia. I guess I’m doing this for another couple of years.
6.5/7 days, I wake up, and I’m happy and grateful to do what I do — representing people buying or selling homes, guiding them as appropriate through significant, important, sometimes traumatic, life events.
I’d like to think that loving what I do comes through in how I represent my clients; I’m always learning, always trying to do the right thing for my clients, and never ever feeling like I’m good enough at what I do to stop asking lots of questions — and I ask my clients to ask questions, too!
The emotions of a home
Working on for next month: Every home buying or selling decision is filled with emotions. Knowing that, and knowing how and when to either work to pull them back, or allow them to build, is one of the unspoken, and untaught skills required (in my opinion) for effective representation.
Updating my thinking | Seeking Community
99% of my clients express some degree of, “we want to be part of something — a community, friends, etc.”
A few examples:
“We would like to be in a neighborhood with lots of kids, a good community vibe, sidewalks, ideally near walking trails, and with a sense of privacy would be great.
“So that we can feel settled and to establish ourselves within the community”
“Walkability, community, access to trails, good schools, and “outdoorsy” culture”
“Want to plant roots/sense of permanence/build community, ability to somewhat customize since we’ve been renting forever (for example: paint if we want), investment, and we’ve built up enough savings for a down payment.”
I wrote the following in 2016, and I’ve evolved (I’d like to think that evolution is an improvement)
I do care about my clients, but I care about their kids more. Here’s my explanation:
Years ago I had the humbling awareness of the gravity of the decisions my clients, with my guidance and advice, were making. One of my favorite parts of what I do (and one of the reasons that if I were to win the lottery big I’d still practice real estate) is helping clients buy a home and then representing them when they sell years later.
Often, in that time, kids happen and grow. The adults, as I say, tend to be reasonably intelligent and responsible people – tasked with making life decisions that will impact not only the rest of their lives but the lives of their kids as well. Their kids have no say in the matter and are entirely dependent on the adults making good decisions.
And that’s terrifying. For all of us. So I do care about you, I just recognize that the kids tend to matter more. Darn it.
After explaining my reasoning to a client recently, part of her response was
“Have a wonderful time coaching (soccer) today and thank you so much for taking the time to help me. Thank you for keeping my kids at the center of your attention!”
Yeah, that’s why I do what I do.
A few years after I wrote that I was talking to clients and they pushed back a bit on my thinking. “Yes, we love our kids and want them to be happy, but we want to be happy and have friends, too.”
Yep. I don’t think I was wrong, but my view was myopic. Maybe that was due to the particular life stage I was in.
Any guesses on what those icy patches represent? I have my guesses.
The Crozet real estate market continues to be interesting, and requires constant study. Greg Slater and I are restarting the Crozet Real Estate Conversation series to help provide some insight into the market, and offer guidance for those considering buying or selling homes.
This is Part 1.
Questions/comments? Please leave them below, or contact us directly:
Home sales in Crozet + Brownsville are down, year over year, prices for resale homes are down, new construction prices are up, and days on market are up a little bit.
The Crozet real estate market is stable. (despite being remarkably unaffordable for so many)
133 (down) homes sold. Average Days on Market: 29 (up). Median: 4. Average sales price: $632,011
50 (down) new construction sold – Average price: $720,826 (up)
83 (down) resale homes sold – Average price: $578,508 (down)
83 single family homes sold and 50 attached homes sold
25 homes sold under $400K; 21 of those had 3 or more bedrooms
Average age of home sold in 2023: 15 years
128 homes were listed.
From 1 January 2022 to 30 June 2022
151 homes sold. Average Days on Market: 18. Median: 4. Average sales price: $649,280
61 new construction sold – Average price: $705,529
90 resale homes sold – Average price: $611,156
113 single family homes sold and 38 attached homes sold
31 homes sold under $400K; 25 of those had 3 or more bedrooms
144 homes were listed.
Will home prices in Crozet come down?
Maybe. But if you are able to buy now, and you have life/job security, what might be the opportunity cost of waiting? As I tell my clients, I can’t answer that. I know that houses have appreciated, even as mortgage rates have increased substantially.
Will interest rates come down or go up?
Yes.
Specific questions that only buyers/sellers can ask and answer (with professional guidance?)
There’s really only one question, usually — Should I wait to buy or sell?
# of homes sold in 1st half of 2023; some of the neighborhoods
attached + detached homes. neighborhoods with more than 1 sale.
The one thing I’d add to what I wrote below is that mortgage rates are causing more homeowners to stay where they are rather than move up or down, especially if they are staying in Crozet or Charlottesville/Albemarle.
One of the most common conversations I have is this:
-Prices are so high! I should sell my house.
-I agree. (knowing the next part of the short conversation)
-Where would I go?
– Nowhere; you’re going to stay where you are.
Mortgage interest rates are causing the market to shift
Looking at interest rates through this lens:*
$650K price. 20% down 3.25% Principal + Interest payment= $2,263
Change that interest rate to 6% -> $3,118
And 5.5% -> $2,953
For a $500K at 5.5% house, P&I = $2,271
Buyers are going to necessarily pull back.
Sellers need to be mindful of buyers’ more limited budgets and set expectations appropriately. And listen to the best professional guidance they have. (here’s where I ask you to contact me with questions)
* note:these numbers are for just Principal and Interest; a full mortgage payment is comprised of Principal + Interest + (property) Taxes + (homeowners’) Insurance. Hence the commonly-referenced “PITI payment.” If you’re in a HOA, factor those fees in as well.
It’s been a challenging year(s) for buyers in the Charlottesville area. While it’s been this way for years, the past three years have been exceptionally hard.
Continued low inventory
High prices
Higher interest rates than a generation of buyers have seen
42% of American homeowners don’t have mortgages
The baby chasers are having an impact on the market
* single family + attached, resale, Brownsville + Crozet, excluding new construction
What is the Crozet real estate market doing right now?
The best answer is the one I’ve said for most of my career – I’ll tell you in 18 months what happens tomorrow, combined with “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure this out.” No one knows with certainty, but I think I have a reasonably educated and experienced prognostication.
number of new listings in Brownsville + Crozet and % of total (217)
How many homes will come on the market that will fit you?
In 2017, I wrote a story laying out an answer to this question for Charlottesville, and for Albemarle. The logic and rationale remains the same, but the numbers have changed.
There comes a time in every home search process (and often the home selling process) where one says “this is good enough.”
Arriving at the point of whatever you want to call it – concession, compromise, acquiescence, acceptance, or, to use a positively-connoted descriptor – satisfied – is hard.
There is a lot to consider when looking at Crozet’s real estate market. I’ve never hidden that I’m a Realtor who represents sellers and buyers in Crozet, and I’m writing this post as much for me as for you.
One important note: when looking back at past years, I’ve typically broken down Crozet and Brownsville Elementary school districts. (see the bottom of this post) Those school districts were shaken up in 2022, so for this post I’m looking at Crozet + Brownsville.
The average sales prices for homes in Crozet is eye-popping. Average sales price for a single family home in Crozet in 2022 was $739,053.
Click to embiggen
Some additional notes on the Crozet Market
This redistricting will necessarily change how I analyze properties for clients.
Buyers should ensure that they know which district the house they are considering is in; often, Realtors will copy the previous listing without double checking. (we’re all human)
I think the 2023 Crozet real estate market will be fine; likely not mid-2020 to mid 2022 busy, but a good market for sellers. And a hard one for buyers.
For those who advocate for fewer homes in Crozet, please think about our kids who want to move back to be close to (grand)parents, and grandparents who want to move to Crozet to be closer to the (grand)kids. And consider the people who we ostensibly want to live and work in Crozet …
From a volume perspective, I think we’re going to be closer to 2019 numbers than 2020-2022. We’ll see.
As we start to close out the end of January, a few quick numbers
303 homes – attached + single family – sold last year via the Charlottesville MLS
81 attached; average price was $474,190. 40 of the 81 were new construction; average price was $554,891.
222 single family homes; average price was $739,053. 88 of the 222 were new construction; average price of these homes was $846,320.
Of the 303 homes that sold in Crozet last year, 29 were under $400K.
24 of the 29 had at least 3 bedrooms.
Inventory remains a challenge for buyers; and keeps a strong market for sellers.
Last January, 19 non-new construction homes were listed in Crozet.
It’s 27 January 2023, and so far, 5 non-new construction homes have been listed in Crozet. 2 of the 5 are under contract (one of those two is my listing)
There is not much land left in Crozet to develop for new residential construction.
If you’re thinking about selling your home in Crozet, now is still a good time to do so, and still requires proper preparation, pricing, and representation.
If you’re thinking about buying a home in Crozet, please reach out if you are looking for buyer representation; it’s going to remain a challenging market in which to buy, but it’s doable.
If you have questions about the market, or are curious about a development you saw that might be coming, please call or email me anytime.
